top of page

2024 Ohio Primaries: A Deep Dive Analysis

Writer's picture: Gustavo CruzGustavo Cruz

Updated: Aug 18, 2024


Woman voting at Ohio Primaries Poll

Photo Credits: Columbus Dispatch

DISCLAIMER: This blog post does not represent the views of MasonVotes.


On March 19th, Ohio held its primary elections. When you hear about a primary election, you may think about the presidential election, but with this year's presidential tickets essentially already chosen, I won’t dwell too much on that aspect.


Donald Trump won 79% of the votes in the Republican primary, winning all 79 delegates at stake, meaning that the 79 people representing Ohio at the Republican National Convention will vote for Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for president. 

Joe Biden had an even stronger showing, winning 87% of the vote in the Democratic presidential primary.


But let’s be honest, we all knew how the presidential primary would turn out. What I’m interested in is what was on the rest of the ballot.


Ohio also had primary elections for one of its two Senate seats and all of its House districts.


For the Senate seat, the Democratic candidate and current incumbent, Sherrod Brown, ran uncontested, a testament to his immense popularity in an increasingly Republican-leaning state. Sherrod Brown’s political career has been defined by his dedication to Ohio’s working class. He’s pretty moderate on most social issues, but don’t let that fool you. Sherrod Brown does not mess with Ohio’s workers. From leading investigations into the Norfolk-Southern chemical explosion to fighting for a more protectionist trade policy promoting the revival of the rust belt, Sherrod Brown’s dedication to the working class has no doubt helped him secure the trust of Ohioans. Just take his work with the CHIPS and Science Act, which is now law. Sherrod Brown helped secure the building of a new Intel computer chip plant right here in Ohio.  


As for the Republican Senate primary, that one was a bit more contentious. 

There were three candidates all vying for the chance to face Sherrod Brown in November. The two men who would end up losing were current Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Ohio State Senator Matt Dolan, who had Governor DeWine’s endorsement.

The winner of the primary, with 50% of the vote, was Bernie Moreno, a businessman and political outsider who ran on a platform promising to secure the southern border, enact term limits in Congress, promote free-market economics to compete with China, and pledging to support parents’ rights to choose what their children learn in schools. His promise to “End Socialism” and “End Woke and Cancel Culture in America” drew the attention of conservatives nationwide, especially the big honcho himself, Donald Trump, who gave his endorsement to Moreno, no doubt contributing to Moreno’s win. Time will tell if Moreno can unseat the formidable Brown, especially amidst a scandal involving his personal love life, but if anyone can do it, it’ll likely be him and his valuable Trump endorsement. 


Finally, out of Ohio's 15 districts, there were competitive races in the 2nd, 6th, 9th, and 13th districts. For the 2nd district, the GOP representative did not run for re-election, so the winner of the Republican primary, David Taylor, will most likely be the district’s new representative. The seat for the 6th district has been empty since its former representative, Republican Bill Johnson, resigned to accept a job at Youngstown University. This means there were two primaries: one to decide the candidates for the special election to replace him for the rest of his term in June, and one for the November election. Republican Michael Rulli and Democrat Michael Kripchak won both of their parties’ primaries. 


Now on to the 9th district. This seat is currently held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who has held the seat since 1983. Her political career has been defined by dedication to Ohio’s working class, much like Sherrod Brown. Although she’s typically been very popular, it seems that in the highly polarized Ohio of 2024, her seat could be at risk. In a three-person primary, the Republicans voted for State Representative Derek Merrin to be their candidate against Kaptur, giving him 52% of the vote. This came after the originally favored candidate, J.R. Majewski, dropped out in the face of pressure from the state party due to his highly divisive and controversial MAGA stances and rhetoric, which included the use of strong language. Now, Derek Merrin, who has a Trump endorsement, will run against Kaptur to see if he can flip her district with a milder, still conservative platform based on his success at the state legislature.


The 13th district, currently held by a Democrat, saw former Ohio State Senator Kevin Coughlin win the GOP primary with 67% of the vote. His platform was your standard conservative platform based on border security, parent’s rights, and fiscal responsibility. He also, however, brought a special focus on crime and domestic security, which may be what he needs to flip the seat in November. 


The Ohio primary may have been boring at the presidential level, but the highly contentious races at the Senate and House levels show an Ohio more polarized than ever before and provide a warning to Democrats that seats previously assumed to be easy wins may no longer be safe.


Comments


bottom of page